Image
Icon

Directory

IconAlternative Investments
IconAsset Managers
IconAssociations and Institutes
IconBBBEE Consulting and Verification Agencies
IconConsumer Protection
IconCorporate Governance
IconCredit Bureaus
IconFinancial Planners
IconInvestment Consulting
IconLinked Investment Service Providers
IconListed Equities
IconOmbud
IconOnline Share Trading
IconParticipation Bond Managers
IconProperty Unit Trusts
IconPublications
IconRegulatory Authorities
IconStock Exchange
IconUnit Trust Fund Managers
IconWellness Programs
Advertise Here
  Subscribe To »

What SA investors can learn from the case of Greek government bonds

Published

2019

Wed

31

Jul

Justin Floor, PSG Asset Management

 

Ten-year Greek government bonds – deemed ‘uninvestable’ at the height of the eurozone crisis – are currently yielding 2.2%. What makes this remarkable is firstly that yields in Greece are now only slightly higher than those in the US, meaning investors effectively require the same compensation to lend to the Greek and US governments. More interesting is that the structural concerns that saw Greek 10-year yields spike to 35% in early 2012 have not been resolved; only marginally improved.

 

This serves as a timely reminder to South African investors that things are not always as bad as they seem – and that even a small improvement to seemingly dire conditions can spur a strong pick-up in investment returns.

 

There are striking similarities between Greece in the early 2010s and South Africa now

In 2011/2012, Greece faced one of its darkest times in recent history: it was at the height of its debt crisis and on the brink of exiting the European Union. The similarities to current conditions in South Africa went beyond worryingly high fiscal debt levels. In addition, Greece was experiencing endemic corruption, low growth and inflation, slow infrastructure development and high levels of emigration and unemployment. Deep despair and pessimism were prevalent in society and factored into asset prices, with citizens and investors alike believing there was little hope.

 

The point of maximum pessimism in Greece proved to be the best time to invest

Had you invested in 10-year Greek government bonds at their low point in May 2012, you would have made your money back over nine times, with a return of 40% per year, as shown in the graph below.

 

Graph: 10-year Greek government bonds have returned 40% per year since May 2012

 

 

Source: PSG Asset Management, Bloomberg

 

Greek asset prices compensated investors for structural issues and weak sentiment

Many of Greece’s structural concerns remain unresolved – and while some have improved, others have worsened. So why have asset prices normalised? Primarily, because they were simply too cheap. Prices factored in a permanent worst-case scenario, with no possibility of improvement. The slightest restoration of balance – the realisation that while times are tough, they may not be all-out hopeless – saw prices return to more realistic levels.

 

It is impossible to predict transition points

While many market commentators agree that South African assets appear to be offering good value at current valuation levels, most are waiting for conditions to improve before deploying capital. However, no one can predict when the turning point will be. We only know that history has shown time and again that sellers eventually dry up and buyers realise their negativity is overstated. When this happens, asset prices can normalise quite dramatically.

 

Could South Africa follow Greece’s example?

As in Greece in 2012, we believe that South African investors are focusing solely on the country’s structural issues, and not on asset prices. However, with excessive pessimism priced in, many asset prices are compensating for the issues at hand. Various factors contributed to prices in Greece normalising, including the possibility of support from the European Central Bank. South Africa’s circumstances are clearly different. However, what this has shown is that when prices get too low, the odds move further into investors’ favour. Historically, times like these have proven to be excellent buying opportunities.

 

 
Source: Andrea Kirk cdcom
 
« Back to previous page Print this page » |
 

Breaking News »

Longevity in estate planning

Willie Fourie, Head of Estate and Trust advisory services at PSG Wealth We often think of longevity when it comes to financial planning, but there is also something to be said for considering the longevity of ...
Read More »

  

The risk of a US bear market is higher than a year ago – PSG Wealth

The current bull market reached its 10-year anniversary this June, making it the longest bull market run in modern history. Understandably, this makes investors nervous. Everyone remembers the mayhem of 2008 – ...
Read More »

  

Five key reasons not to DIY your investments

The rise of new technologies and fintech has made investing simpler, more transparent and cheaper than ever before, leading many to adopt a DIY-approach to their finances. So, in a world where investing is as easy ...
Read More »

  

The risk of selling low

The premise of investing is simple: buy low, sell high and, by doing so, earn an investment return. In practice, however, it’s far more difficult. How we’re wired as humans makes it hard for us to set ...
Read More »

 

More News »

Image

Healthcare »

Image

Life »

Image

Retirement »

Image

Short-term »

Advertise Here
Image
Advertise Here

From The Glossary »

Icon

Modified Duration:

A value given to fixed-income instruments from which the change in the instrument's price can be approximately calculated. The higher the duration value, the greater the change in the instrument's price.
More Definitions »

 

Advertise

 

eZine

 

Contact IG

 

Media Pack

 

RSS Feeds

By using this website you agree to the Terms of Use.
Copyright © Insurance Gateway (Pty) Ltd 2004 - 2019. All Rights Reserved.